SfDx
Sparse Functional Derivatives Exchange
Trade futures, options, and text markets via a common framework.
Futures (1D) and options (2D) are special cases.
SfDx generalizes to nD by listing a basis instead of contracts.
The Core Idea
Traditional exchanges list specific contracts. SfDx lists a basis {φᵢ}.
Any contract payoff f can be written as f = Σ αᵢφᵢ. Traders pick the weights α.
This solves two problems: (1) liquidity pools across all contracts sharing the basis,
(2) infinite-dimensional payoffs become tractable via sparsity.
Dimensional Spectrum
0D — Binary
f = 1{event}
Single outcome
1D — Futures
f = S(T) - K
Linear in price at expiry
2D — Options
f = max(S(T) - K, 0)
Nonlinear payoff surface
nD — Path-Dependent
f = F[S(·)]
Functional of entire path
Pattern: each step adds structure. 0D = point. 1D = line. 2D = surface. nD = function space.
How It Works
1. Basis Listing
Exchange lists basis functions {φᵢ(z)} where z ∈ ℝⁿ is the state space
2. Functional Trading
Any payoff f = Σ αᵢφᵢ is tradeable. Quote f → implied quotes on {φᵢ} via arbitrage
3. Settlement
Outcome z_actual occurs. Payoff = f(z_actual) = Σ αᵢφᵢ(z_actual). Standard functional evaluation.
No-Arbitrage Constraint
If f = Σ αᵢφᵢ and g = Σ βᵢφᵢ, then price(f) + price(g) = price(Σ (αᵢ+βᵢ)φᵢ) or arbitrage exists.
This propagates liquidity across all functionals.
Regularization
Fees ∝ ||α||₀ (L0 norm = number of non-zero coefficients). Complex bets cost more.
This solves curse of dimensionality: infinite dimensions, finite complexity per contract.
Text Markets
Basis: LLM compresses world state W → latent vector z ∈ ℝⁿ. This compressed representation becomes the basis.
Functionals: LLM outputs (continuations) from z become tradeable contracts: text generated from the compressed state.
Example: Compress "disease outbreak state" → z. Trade on LLM outputs: "peak estimate", "policy recommendation", "CDC guidance".
When actual state z_actual occurs, settlement = LLM(z_actual, prompt). Bet on what the LLM will say about the compressed world.
Why This Works
- Compression: Similar world states → similar z (by LLM encoding)
- Shared basis: All LLM outputs about event E share compressed z → liquidity pools
- Arbitrage: Inconsistent LLM output prices create risk-free profit → forces coherence
Examples
Disease Outbreaks
Known case: "Peak cases" futures (1D)
SfDx: Basis {infection(x,y,t), healthcare_capacity, interventions} → functionals "Peak NYC < 50k" · "Lockdown duration" · "Hospital capacity alerts" all share liquidity
1D futures → 3D spatial + time + text
Healthcare Solutions
Known case: Binary "treatment works" bet
SfDx: Basis {patient_outcomes(disease, treatment), costs, adoption} → functionals "Cost per cure < $X" · "Adoption > Y%" · "Side effects rate" all priced consistently
Binary → nD treatment+outcome space
Product Launches
Known case: Stock option at launch (2D)
SfDx: Basis {features, pricing, reception, technical_performance} → functionals "Sales > $1M" · "Review score" · "Stock Δ" all share implied quotes
2D option → nD product state
LLM Continuations
Known case: Binary "LLM says X" bet
SfDx: Basis {z} = LLM-compressed outbreak state → functionals = LLM(z, prompt): "policy text" · "peak estimate" · "guidance summary" — bet on what LLM outputs from compressed reality
Trade LLM outputs from compressed states
Mathematical Foundation
Basis Expansion
Any L² payoff: f = Σ αᵢφᵢ where {φᵢ} is complete basis.
Fourier, wavelets, Hermite functions are special cases.
Pricing Functional
Price operator Π: L²(Ω) → ℝ maps payoffs to prices.
No-arbitrage ⟺ Π is linear, positive, normalized.
Neural Operators
DeepONets, FNOs learn Π directly without discretization.
Map f ↦ price(f) as operator approximation.
Sparsity Theorem
L0 regularization makes nD tractable. Most practical payoffs are k-sparse with k ≪ n.
Key Insight
Traditional markets trade outcomes. SfDx trades functionals over state space.
All markets sharing a basis get liquidity from arbitrage-enforced consistency.
LLMs make strategy loading intelligible — describe bets in natural language, settle on math.